The latest report on renewable energy sources from the peak body, the International Energy Agency, estimates that we should see a dramatic 50% increase in renewable energy production over the next 25 years. By Jeremy Torr.

Paris, October 2019. The world’s peak body for energy, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has released it’s annual report on energy issues, and has predicted that there will be a significant 50% increase in renewable energy production between now and 2025, mainly thanks to an increases in efficiency and output which will lead to greater economy and uptake of both wind and solar power generation.

“This is a pivotal time for renewable energy,” said Dr. Fatih Birol, executive director at the IEA in a recent interview, adding that as costs continue to fall, there will be a growing incentive particularly to ramp up the deployment of solar photo-voltaic (PV) power generation. “The cost of generating electricity from distributed solar PV systems is already below retail electricity prices in most countries. The IEA forecasts that the amount of power generated by renewables will jump by a further 15% to 35% by 2024, making the technology even more attractive and spurring adoption worldwide.”

The IEA says that already technologies like mass-produced solar photovoltaics and high efficiency wind turbines are transforming power generation across the global energy system. “The increasing deployment (of these technologies) is crucial for efforts to tackle greenhouse gas emissions, reduce air pollution, and expand energy access,” adds the report. “Renewables are already the world’s second largest source of electricity, but their deployment still needs to accelerate if we are to achieve long-term climate, air quality and energy access goals.”

The IEA says the installation of solar PV systems on homes, commercial buildings and industrial facilities is set to take off over the next five years, transforming the way electricity is generated and consumed. And more generally, the world’s total renewable-based power capacity will grow by 50% between 2019 and 2024, an increase of 1,200 gigawatts which is the equivalent of the current total power capacity of the United States. Solar power alone accounts for 60% of that rise.

The predicted growth comes after renewable capacity additions stalled in 2018; the first dip in almost two decades. The report highlights the three main challenges to be overcome in the deployment of renewables: policy and regulatory uncertainty, high investment risks and system integration of wind and solar PV. Indeed, current levels of growth remain well below what is needed to meet global sustainable energy targets.

The IEA asserts that increases in uptake will be driven by two key elements: cost reductions and concerted government policy efforts. “Distributed PV’s potential is breathtaking, but its development needs to be well managed to balance the different interests of PV system owners, other consumers and energy and distribution companies,” said Dr Birol.

With the number of solar rooftop systems on homes projected to more than double to some 100 million by 2024, the IEA points out there is a danger that unmanaged growth could disrupt electricity markets by raising system costs, challenging the grid integration and reducing the revenues of network operators.

“But by reforming retail tariffs and adapting (well-developed) policies, utilities and governments will be able to attract investment in distributed PV while securing enough revenues to pay for fixed network assets,” adds the report.

While top markets for PV renewable power are being developed in countries like Australia, Belgium, California, the Netherlands and Austria, there is still a need to ensure that other renewable options are exploited, notes the report.

The report forecasts transport-based renewables growing by an additional 20% through 2024 on the assumption of enhanced policy support opening new markets in aviation and marine transport, with biofuels (currently some 90% of renewable energy in transport) set to increase by 25% over the next five years – especially in Asia and particularly China. These will be driven mainly by energy security and air pollution concerns in cities and elsewhere.  

Overall, the IEA is optimistic about renewables, and says it is already ramping up to help push the sector as a way of boosting sustainable power supply, worldwide.

“We are ready to advise governments on what is needed to take full advantage of this rapidly emerging technology - without jeopardising electricity security,” says Dr. Birol.